Experts say watch Covid-19 death toll, not cases; PM Modi to talk to CMs next week

Over two days next week, June 16 and 17, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will interact with state chief ministers.

As Covid cases surge in India, epidemiologists, both within the government and outside, say the key metric to watch now may be the death toll — a crucial marker both of the course of the epidemic and the success of state governments in tackling it.

Over two days next week, June 16 and 17, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will interact with state chief ministers, with the second day of the video-conferencing set aside for CMs from states such as Maharashtra, Delhi, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and others, which are seeing a spurt in cases and death numbers.

The death toll has been rising over the last few weeks. Sample this: 87 deaths on May 11, rose to 157 a week later on May 18, and remained in the 140-160 range for some time before showing a spurt again. On May 31, there were 265 deaths and now, on June 12, the numbers touched a new high – 396 deaths and 2,97,535 total cases.

“No higher than tomorrow, right?” said Dr Jayaprakash Muliyil, epidemiologist and former principal of CMC Vellore, when asked about what the rising cases and deaths. His prescription, therefore, is to concentrate resources on preventing deaths by preparing oxygen beds etc, instead of the old formula of testing as many as possible and isolating them.

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